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Rattled by the “Correction?” Diversification keeps your nest egg on the rails

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“I know not what the future holds, but I know who holds the future.”
—Homer

We are all aware that portfolio winners rotate position from time to time. Leaders have a habit of becoming laggards. “Must own” darlings become “forgotten” names. Winners vacate the “winner’s circle.” As the timeless saying preaches, don’t put all your eggs in the same basket. Hopefully, this classic advice is being followed.

“Diversification strategies are essential, time-tested tools for every nest egg.”

The main goal of investment diversification is to contain the damages of market volatility from being inflicted on the nest egg. The importance of this is fundamental and always in fashion. I highlight some key observations on portfolio diversification:

  • Investment portfolios suffer from inadequate diversification.
  • Mutual funds we own often have the same, or similar, stocks.
  • Investors are not aware that they lack diversification.

Diversification strategies are essential, time-tested tools for every nest egg. They improve your chances of achieving better consistency of long-term returns. It’s a focus for every investor to prioritize.

Basic diversification involves spreading your risks across different sectors of the economy. All within the asset allocation targets set by your investment plan of action. Make sure that you are comfortable with the approach so that you don’t have to dwell on regrets. Portfolios I review range from too concentrated to well over diversified.

Overall, diversification is a necessary safeguard. You don’t want problems arising in any asset class to ruin your well-designed portfolio. Especially the one that delivers the family’s retirement cash flow.

Develop sound habits

Diversification increases the odds of you being right more often than wrong. When some selections are suffering, others can step up and help cushion the rest of the portfolio.

Make it your habit to keep your nest egg from slipping off the rails. I summarize my top ways to achieve necessary portfolio diversification:

  • Asset Classes: Choosing different asset classes for the game plan is a sensible and prudent step. Stocks, bonds, cash, commodities and real estate are common picks.
  • Economic Regions: Portfolios may include selections from Canada and other regions around the world. Like the USA, Europe, Far East and emerging countries.
  • Time to Maturity: A portion of the portfolio could have a range of investment maturities. From as short as 30 days to as long as 30 years.
  • Foreign Currencies: Investment selections can be purchased in currencies other than Canadian funds. Such as US dollars, the Euro or hedged to our Loonie.
  • Investment Quality: High investment quality trumps reaching out for questionable yield. Trading quality for higher yields increases the potential to incur large losses.

Portfolios ought to contain a variety of investments that don’t all move in unison. However, seasoned investors know full well that is not always possible.

Broad brush

My table below is far from scientific. Look upon it as a broad brush view of portfolios that own Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and/or mutual funds as their primary investments in equities. Each investment selection is referenced as a “basket.” I divide the diversification landscape into three ballparks. Continue Reading…

Canadians think they need $756,000 to retire; failure to plan means most will fall short

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My latest Financial Post column looks at a CIBC survey released Thursday that finds on average individual Canadians believe they’ll need $756,000 in order to retire.

Of course, most fall woefully short because they haven’t even crafted a financial plan to get there. And you know the old sayings, “Failing to plan is planning to fail,” or “If you don’t know where you’re going you’ll probably end up somewhere else.”

You can find the full column by clicking on the highlighted headline: The magic number for Retirement Savings is $756,000, according to poll of Canadians.

Considering that on average Canadians hope to retire by age 63, the fact that almost one in five haven’t even begun to even think about retirement suggests a bit of a disconnect. And women are consistently more behind in their retirement planning preparations than men. That’s a problem, considering that women have longer life expectancies and their money will therefore have to last longer.

Depending on aspirations, the “Number” can range from Zero to $2 million

\While the CIBC study looks at individuals rather than couples, the column quotes regular Hub guest blogger Marie Engen, who described three levels of retirement — basic, average and deluxe — in this 2016 blog: How much do you REALLY need to retire?  (The original blog ran on the Boomer & Echo site late in 2015.) Some with modest needs can save nothing and subsist on the $38,000 senior couples can get from CPP and OAS. Continue Reading…

Investing in fads like Bitcoin or Marijuana stocks: Quack like a duck and you may get plucked

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By Steve Lowrie
Special to the Financial Independence Hub

 

It’s now been nearly a decade since investors have had to face down a bad bear market.  Long enough, apparently, that many have forgotten how painful that can be.  Maybe that’s why I’ve been witnessing what seems like an uptick of speculative excess lately – aka, fad-chasing.

For example, there’s been performance chasing in real estate, and continued stockpiling of high-dividend stocks.  At least these qualify as legitimate asset classes if they’re sensibly incorporated.  In an increasing bid to turn up the heat, I’ve also been seeing investors bedazzled by far riskier ventures ranging from cryptocurrency to cannabis. This, despite decades of evidence suggesting what the future has in store for financial fads.  A few lucky players make a fortune, but the vast majority who pile in after the run-up is noticeable are far more likely to be left holding the bag.

When the ducks quack, feed them

Everyone seems to have forgotten how risky a hot hand can be.  Everyone, that is, except the Bay Street and Wall Street denizens who have a saying for these sorts of speculative runs:  When the ducks quack, feed them.  Meaning, as one source has described, “when investors want to buy something … that something is offered for sale.  It doesn’t make any difference if Wall Street knows in its heart of hearts that that something (such as an IPO) is overpriced.”

Make no mistake.  The typical Wall Street brokers and Bay Street bankers are no fools; they are opportunistic.   If they see a chance to make easy money on a hot-hand trading frenzy, they’re happy to help you get in on the action.  Whether you win or lose on your trades, they come out ahead on the transaction fees involved.

Likewise, the popular financial press makes its money by capturing your interest; not by advising you according to your highest interest.  Case in point:  As I write this post, the Yahoo Finance feed is prominently displaying Bitcoin pricing ahead of the Cdn/US dollar exchange rate and major international market returns.  It’s also awash with ads promoting Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency for sale.  So much for objective reporting.

As Reformed Broker Josh Brown once said: “The more you read about Wall Street history, the more you recognize it as the world’s most elaborate petting zoo – lambs, ducks, goats, cows and pigs herded into pens so that bankers and brokers can feed them pellets right from their hands.  We are fed until the bursting point, we almost never walk away on our own.”

So before you decide to buy cryptocurrency, cannabis, or whatever is the next craze to come, here’s what I would suggest you do first:  Think it over while taking a good long walk – most likely in the direction of “away.”
Continue Reading…

Worst day ever for stocks?

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Will Monday February 5th go down as the worst day ever for stocks? On this day the Dow Jones industrial average lost more than 1,175 points:  the worst single-day point drop in its history. But was it really the worst day ever? Investors need some context.

The 1,175 point drop was indeed the biggest single-day point loss the Dow has ever sustained. But let’s remember the Dow has been soaring almost uninterrupted since March 2009 when it bottomed-out at 6,627 points during the global financial crisis. By the end of January 2018 it had reached a record 26,616 points.

Related: Have we reached peak stock market?

Better to forget about points and focus instead on percentage gains and losses. Taken in this context the headline reads a bit different. The Dow plunged 4.6 per cent: its worst day since August 2011. It doesn’t sound nearly as gloomy.

Another way to frame this day is that the stock market has erased its gains from the start of the year. But 2018 is just one month old.

Where does this day rank in terms of largest one-day percentage drops in history? Will it live on in infamy like Black Monday, Black Tuesday, the Flash Crash, or the aftermath of the September 11th attacks?

Nope, not even close.

If you were thinking Monday’s 4.6 percent drop was a bloodbath then how would you have reacted to one of the top 20 largest daily losses of all time? This wasn’t even a blip on the radar.

Related: What can you do about the upcoming stock market crash?

Continue Reading…

Do you need two million dollars to retire?

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By Billy and Akaisha Kaderli

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

We like to keep informed about the topic of retirement from the perspective of money managers and those in the financial fields.

You might have read some of these articles also; you know, the ones that say North Americans have not saved enough to retire.

Many of these pieces proclaim that you must save enough in your investments to throw off 80% of your current annual salary so you can afford a comfortable life away from a job. Lots of them will say that you need US$2 million in investments and woe to the person who thinks they can do it on less.

Approximately 10% of the households in the US have a net worth of one million dollars or more. What are the other 90% supposed to do? Not retire? What kind of common sense does this make?  Expecting the regular “Joe” to meet this $2 million dollar mark is not realistic.

As you know, we have almost three decades of financial independence behind us. And while everyone’s idea of a perfect lifestyle sans paycheck is different, we can tell you that for these almost-30-years, we have kept our annual spending around $30,000 or less per year.

The secret: Living within your means

In all of our years of retirement and travel we cannot recall one retiree who regrets their decision to retire. In fact, most have told us that they wished they had done it sooner.

The Society of Actuaries (SOA) recently conducted 62 in-depth interviews of retired individuals across both the U.S. and Canada. These people were not wealthy and had done little to no financial planning. But the vast majority of them shared that they had adapted to their situation and live within their means. Meaning, they have adjusted their spending to the amount of money they have coming in every month.

So basically, it’s really that simple and this is why we say if you want to know about retirement, go to the source.

It doesn’t have to be complicated

In our books and in our articles about finance, we say over and over that there are four categories of highest spending in any household. We personally have made adjustments in all four of these categories, and have therefore reaped the benefits of having done so.

The financial guys and gals will have you tap dance all over the place with investment products, and a certain financial goal you must achieve. They will press upon you the seriousness of this decision to leave your job for a couple of decades of jobless living. We say it doesn’t really have to be that complicated, but it’s very important to pay attention to these four categories.

Listen up Continue Reading…