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Financial planning for Retirement: uncertainty is certain

Sandi-Casual-Small
Sandi Martin

By Sandi Martin

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

If you’re planning for retirement and make the mistake of scrolling through any finance section in a slow news week, you have to ask yourself: what kind of questions are they asking to produce breathless headlines like these?

  • Half of Canadians don’t think they’ll be able to retire comfortably: poll
  • Many Canadians believe they will run out of money 10 years into retirement, poll finds
  • Retiring Canadians will see ‘steep decline in living standards’: CIBC

If a friendly pollster called you in the middle of dinner and asked “Have you saved enough for retirement?,” how would you answer if you were only given the choice between “yes,” “no,” and “I don’t know” and wanted to get off the phone and back to your family?

I doubt that the statisticians or infographic designers would be happy if “it depends on what you mean by ‘enough’” were added as a fourth option, but I’d bet a lot of money that it would be the single most frequent response if were presented as an option.

Leaving aside that most of these studies and polls are commissioned by banks and mutual fund shops whenever their managed asset levels get lower than they’d like, let’s talk about how silly it is to frame retirement planning around the concept of “enough,” as if “enough” was something we could universally, quantitatively measure.

What people mean when they talk about “having enough for retirement”

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Crossing two thresholds: ETFs and negative-yielding debt

ETF word on the green enter keyboard image with hi-res rendered artwork that could be used for any graphic design.

A couple of interesting round-number thresholds in the finance world were crossed recently and we thought it worth pointing out!

1.) Canadian Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) aggregate assets under management reach $100 billion in May:

ETFs in Canada continue to grow, offering investors an increasing variety of low cost and transparent investment options.  According to Atul Tiwari, head of Vanguard Canada writing for the Findependence Hub, the increasing importance of ETFs in Canada can be attributed to 4 trends (our comments in italics):

  • The rise of indexingCanada is still way behind the US in terms of adoption of low cost passive investment options but things are changing.
  • Increased competitionThe number of ETFs and number of ETF providers has grown significantly over the last 8 years.
  • Greater transparency and awareness of investment feesindividual investors can now assemble a low-cost globally diversified portfolio for 1/5th of one per cent or lower.
  • Fee-based versus commission based productsunbiased fee-based advisory services tend to favour lower cost, more transparent investment products like ETFs.

2.) Global sovereign debt trading with negative yields surpasses $10 trillion globally:

Yes, negative yield means that if you invest in a bond and hold it to maturity you will end up with less than your initial investment – not a very attractive proposition for investors.  While central banks continue to try to spur risk taking, investment and economic growth by lowering rates, investors continue to thwart these efforts by demanding even more sovereign debt. Interestingly, the result is that near-term returns for government bonds have been positive as interest rates have continued to come down.

With interest rates so close to or below zero, bond prices are very sensitive to rate changes.  The resulting near-term positive absolute return is offsetting the prospect for negative yield longer term.  Even some corporate bond issues are being traded at a negative yield.  We are breaking new ground that hasn’t yet been well hypothesized by academics or tested by industry practitioners.  While this situation is unlikely to go on forever, it’s very difficult to try to guess what will happen next (or when rate increases may happen) and in the US there is new uncertainty over when the US Federal Reserve will resume its indicated rate increases.

The ETF milestone is a positive indication that things are getting better for Canadian investors in terms of fees and transparency.  The negative yield milestone reminds us that investors still sometimes have to make choices in the face of extreme uncertainty.  Perhaps the best we can do is use some of those low-cost ETFs to create diversified portfolios to dampen the impact of uncertainty wherever it shows up.

graham-bodelGraham Bodel is the founder and director of a new fee-only financial planning and portfolio management firm based in Vancouver, BC., Chalten Fee-Only Advisors Ltd. This blog is republished with permission: the original ran on June 7th on Bodel’s blog here.

 

Confessions of a Rewards Credit Card Addict

A credit card with the name The Rewards Card and a present shown on it illustrating the benefits, refunds and rebates you can earn by using a membership accountIt was all about practicality when I applied for my first rewards credit card and started using it to earn free groceries.
After a while I “graduated” to a cash-back credit card, which paid a higher percentage back on grocery and gas spending.I liked the simplicity of funnelling my spending onto one no-fee cash back credit card and getting a little something back for my effort.My attitude changed a few years later when I started doing research into travel rewards credit cards and other premium cards that came with loads of benefits along with an annual fee.What I found was that some credit cards offered better perks in certain spending categories, but not in others. I decided I could maximize my rewards credit card points by using one card for groceries, another one for gas, one for dining and entertainment, and yet another for everything else, including travel.Finding the best rewards credit cardSo I applied for many credit cards over the next three years. The type of cards that found their way into my wallet typically came with big perks; sign-up or welcome bonus points worth hundreds of dollars in cash or travel, annual fees waived in the first year, and the ability to earn more points at partner retailers when you used your card.I guess you could say I got greedy. I was addicted to finding the best rewards credit card and racking up rewards.Most cards wouldn’t last a year in my wallet before I ditched them and moved on to the next round of tempting offers. The rewards cycle went something like this: apply for a credit card, cash in on the bonus offers, cancel the card within 12 months (before the annual fee kicked-in), and Bob’s your uncle.

I eventually realized what a dangerous game I was playing and ultimately came to my senses. Dangerous because I applied for so many credit cards, and had access to so much credit, that my credit score took a major nose-dive (shameful for a personal finance blogger).

Besides, it was a royal pain balancing my budget every month with spending on multiple cards – each one with a different due date. Enough was enough.

This time I’d go back to funnelling all of my spending onto one card. But which one? I thought about the cards that had staying power in my wallet, the ones I held onto for longer than a year.

What did they all have in common? High earning rates in lots of spending categories, not just one or two. Flexibility when it comes to redeeming points, including the ability to book travel with any provider and use your points to cover fees and taxes. Outside of the box incentives help, too, like free checked bags, priority boarding, or a complimentary airport lounge pass for you and a guest.

That may sound like I’m being picky but Canadians are a rewards savvy bunch and many are also looking to get more from the credit cards they carry. According to a recent TD survey, cardholders want and expect greater choice and flexibility for what their reward program offers, as well as new and creative ways to earn and redeem points.

Sound familiar?

The same TD survey said many Canadians own more than one credit card, with nearly nine in ten (89 per cent) owning a least one card for an average of 1.9 credit cards each.

This humble blogger thinks Canadians are leaving money (rewards) on the table by not finding one program that meets their needs and then sticking to it.

Here’s the thing: funnelling all of your spending onto one rewards credit card is the best way to earn points quickly and maximize the rewards potential of that program.

Final thoughts

In today’s competitive travel rewards landscape, it shouldn’t be hard to find a rewards program that let’s you have your cake and eat it too.

But, as the TD survey says, with such a wide variety of rewards programs available, and so many ways to collect and redeem points, make sure you understand how the earning and redemption mechanics of the card work in order to get the maximum benefit from it.

My advice is to dig into your budget and understand where you spend your money (and how much you spend each month). Only then can you determine which credit card rewards program best matches your spending.

RobbEngenIn addition to running the Boomer & Echo website, Robb Engen is a fee-only financial planner. This article originally ran on his site and is republished here with his permission. The post was originally created in partnership with TD. All thoughts and opinions are Mr. Engen’s.

 

 

Review: How NOT to Move Back in with Your Parents

51UopHxeZ+L._SX331_BO1,204,203,200_You’re a millennial. You’ve recently graduated from university and are beginning your career. You aren’t making quite as much as you’d hoped for, and as it turns out, rent is crushingly expensive.

Okay, you’ll just put off moving out for six months, save some money, live at home. Everyone’s doing it these days. You’re sure that before you know it you’ll be on track to success, living it up in homeowner-ville, sitting pretty. You’re not quite sure exactly how you’ll get to homeowner-ville, but it can’t be that hard, right?

If any of this sounds plausible, I would seriously consider reading this wonderful book called How Not to Move Back in With Your Parents – The Young Person’s Guide to Financial Empowerment by Globe and Mail personal finance columnist Rob Carrick. I don’t want to be dramatic and say it will be your new finance bible, but it’s definitely a book you’re going to be referencing time and time again throughout those first few post-graduate years.

Something I really love about this book is that it’s broken down into great detail. Not only that, but it’s organized according to when in life you should be needing the advice.

Covering all the financial bases

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Working part-time in Semi-Retirement a boon to finances

Man Hand writing Work Part Time with black marker on visual screen. Isolated on sky. Business, technology, internet concept. Stock PhotoI predict that many aging Baby Boomers will — either by preference or financial necessity — delay traditional full-stop Retirement and instead embrace Semi-Retirement.

My latest Retired Money column, which has just been published at MoneySense.ca, explores the positive effect on retirement nest eggs of working at least part-time after the traditional retirement age of 65. For full article and chart, click on Should you work part-time in retirement?

It’s based on an analysis by ETF Capital Management, which showed the powerful impact of earning just $1,000 in part-time income each month between the age of 65 and 75; or in the case of couples $2,000 a month between them.

Not working at all after the traditional retirement age of 65 has financial implications, never mind boredom and lack of social interaction. In the case of a retiree with lifestyle expenses of $60,000 who undertakes a full-stop retirement at 65, and earns no extra income, there is a sharp fall in a $500,000 (combined registered and non-registered) portfolio starting at age 65. By the time they reach their early 80s, the nest egg is depleted to zero.

But a couple earning just $2,000 a month between them part-time after 65 and going until 75 will find the extra income delays the portfolio’s drop below zero beyond their early 90s. Not only does the nest egg not decline the first ten years, but it actually rises! By the time you reach 75 and finally stop working even part-time, the portfolio declines from a higher level and much more gradually.

Of course, the more you work, the better: for a couple earning $3,000 a month between them, the portfolio still has more than $200,000 by their 90s!  Similarly, the analysis also shows what happens if you work extra hard, which many might argue wouldn’t even qualify as retirement. At $4,000 a month the portfolio is barely depleted at all by the time they reach 100!

Isn’t this really Semi-Retirement?

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